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Lumber Commodity Report
Welcome to our Monthly Lumber Commodity Report.
This resource is dedicated to providing builders, contractors, and homeowners with the latest insights into lumber market fluctuations, aimed at empowering you to make informed decisions for pricing and budgeting future projects enabling better preparation and planning for your construction and home improvement endeavors.
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See below for latest graphs and commentary.
As you do your quotes, just a reminder to always include escalation clauses in your bids!
This week we saw the largest price increase we’ve seen in a while. There’s quite a bit of speculation as to why, but few firm answers. One impact was almost certainly a high volume of purchases of dimensional lumber with the expectation that tariffs would be put into place. Those tariffs didn’t materialize, but supply side took a hit, driving prices up. There was at least one market correction as well. Let’s dive into the details.
Overall the composite average rose 3.1%. I’ve started tracking, and will include in these reports a trailing 4 week change in the composite average; in the last 4 weeks our average increased 5.3%. Here are the granular results (looking week over week on these numbers):
- Doug Fir 2×4 +4.3%
- Doug Fir 2×6 +3.1%
- Doug Fir 2×8 +0.7%
- Doug Fir 2×10 +3.3%
- Doug Fir 2×12 -5.5% (this is the market correction)
- DF 2×4 92-5/8” +5.1%
- DF 2×4 104-5/8” +3.8%
- DF 2×6 92-5/8” +7.7%
- DF 2×6 104-5/8” +3.7%
- Pres Treat 2×4 +4.9%
- Pres Treat 2×6 +2.3%
- Pres Treat 2×10 +3.1%
- Outdoor Wood 2×4 +2.5%
- Outdoor Wood 2×6 +2.2%
- OSB 15/32” +1.5%
- OSB ¾” EG +0.7%
- OSB ¾” 4×10 +5.3%
Per the suggestion of a local contractor I will also be adding the total change in price to a sample house. This sample house is a small 3 bedroom home with a 2 car attached garage, coming in at 1,064 SF. This week’s price changes increased the cost of the materials for this home by $237
The subject of tariffs on lumber—and potential retaliatory trade measures—remains a significant influence on current lumber pricing. I’ve had a few people ask if these tariffs will shift more harvesting and milling to the United States. Rather than delve into policy debates, I wanted to share some general information that might be helpful:
Supply in the Pacific Northwest vs. Canada
In the Northwest, a large portion of our construction lumber has historically originated in Canada. While there are considerable domestic softwood forests in the western United States (notably Douglas Fir and other coniferous species), Canada’s timber resources are vast, and its lumber industry has traditionally been structured to export heavily to the U.S. market.
In the Northwest, a large portion of our construction lumber has historically originated in Canada. While there are considerable domestic softwood forests in the western United States (notably Douglas Fir and other coniferous species), Canada’s timber resources are vast, and its lumber industry has traditionally been structured to export heavily to the U.S. market.
Regional Species
The Southeast is largely a pine market (Southern Yellow Pine, for example), while the western U.S. uses a mix of Douglas Fir, Hem-Fir, and SPF (Spruce-Pine-Fir). There is ample forestland in the western states, but Canadian producers still account for a substantial share of U.S. framing lumber supply.
The Southeast is largely a pine market (Southern Yellow Pine, for example), while the western U.S. uses a mix of Douglas Fir, Hem-Fir, and SPF (Spruce-Pine-Fir). There is ample forestland in the western states, but Canadian producers still account for a substantial share of U.S. framing lumber supply.
Tariffs and Subsidies
Canada and the United States have been involved in softwood lumber disputes for decades. The U.S. position is that Canadian lumber is subsidized and that tariffs level the playing field. If additional tariffs take effect or existing ones increase, it would likely elevate costs on Canadian-sourced lumber. In the short term, we might continue relying on Canada for supply—simply at a higher price.
Canada and the United States have been involved in softwood lumber disputes for decades. The U.S. position is that Canadian lumber is subsidized and that tariffs level the playing field. If additional tariffs take effect or existing ones increase, it would likely elevate costs on Canadian-sourced lumber. In the short term, we might continue relying on Canada for supply—simply at a higher price.
Potential for U.S. Production Growth
Over the long term, if the U.S. ramps up harvesting and increases milling capacity, a greater share of lumber could be sourced domestically. However, even with higher domestic output, demand pressures could keep prices elevated. With strong housing and construction demand, any shift in sourcing or production involves many moving parts—harvesting regulations, mill investments, labor, and environmental considerations all factor into overall costs and availability.
Over the long term, if the U.S. ramps up harvesting and increases milling capacity, a greater share of lumber could be sourced domestically. However, even with higher domestic output, demand pressures could keep prices elevated. With strong housing and construction demand, any shift in sourcing or production involves many moving parts—harvesting regulations, mill investments, labor, and environmental considerations all factor into overall costs and availability.
Conclusion
This is a complex, interconnected market. My goal here is not to provide political commentary but rather a straightforward look at an ongoing topic that has large implications for our industry. I hope you find it helpful as you plan for future building projects.
This is a complex, interconnected market. My goal here is not to provide political commentary but rather a straightforward look at an ongoing topic that has large implications for our industry. I hope you find it helpful as you plan for future building projects.
Danny Steiger│President & CEO
Lumber Traders Inc.
Angeles Millwork & Lumber Co., Inc.
Angeles Rentals Equipment & Supply
Hartnagel Building Supply, Inc.
Hartnagel Glassworks
As always, the above content is not financial advice. Simply data to help you be better prepared. Our goal is to create more informed builders and homeowners to properly price and budget for future jobs and projects.
We will continue to update you on changes in the commodity market. Displayed above are the latest graphs.
Angeles Millwork and Hartnagel Building Supply see our customers as business partners, and their success is, in turn, ours. That is why every month, we will publish a commodity pricing chart on our Facebook page and in our monthly newsletter. The chart will represent a correlation of average pricing trends over the past year of Douglas Fir 2×4, Pressure Treated 2×4 Lumber, 7/16” OSB, and ½” CDX.